Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(13:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model