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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 23
Seattle Seahawks 17 – New England Patriots 13
What Actually Happened
(10:26) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to NE 24 for -1 yards (23-K.Dugger).
The Three Options
GO
+2.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.54 EP
- 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK
+1.40 EP
- 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT
+0.16 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
