Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New England Patriots 20

(9:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model