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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(:58) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model