Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 63

New England Patriots 20 – Seattle Seahawks 20

(:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 33-D.Williams to SEA 24 for 15 yards (21-J.Hawkins, 53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.51 EP
48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -1.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model