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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings to MIN 20 for 25 yards (24-C.Bynum).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.71 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model