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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 15-J.Jennings (43-A.Van Ginkel, 22-H.Smith) [92-J.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.08 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model