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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-B.Powell to MIN 15 for 10 yards (88-J.Tonges).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP