Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 13 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(13:42) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to SF 34, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model