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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model