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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 13

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.51 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model