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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 3-M.Wishnowsky punt is BLOCKED by 30-C.Ham, Center-46-T.Pepper, RECOVERED by MIN-26-Th.Jackson at SF 39. 26-Th.Jackson to SF 24 for 15 yards (82-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.68 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model