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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 16-W.Reichard 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP