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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 5

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to IND 4 for 1 yard (90-G.Stewart; 98-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.89 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model