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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:59) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model