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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 45

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore to IND 1 for 44 yards (32-J.Blackmon, 45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.07 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP