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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 34

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model