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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model