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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to CHI 37 for 1 yard (95-D.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.68 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model