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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 57

Chicago Bears 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 37 yards to IND 20, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model