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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.29 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model