4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 36 yards to GB 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model