Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to GB 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model