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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 7 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 37 for 0 yards (sack split by 7-Q.Walker and 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model