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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 27 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to TEN 10, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 21 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson; 90-L.Van Ness).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model