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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 27 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.79 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model