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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 27 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 44-B.Narveson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.81 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model