4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 30 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: GB-90-L.Van Ness has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.46 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -1.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model