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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (54-B.Spector; 91-E.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model