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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at JAX 32 for 12 yards (5-A.Cisco).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model