Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 34

(:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right. Thrown away.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

What Happened

59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.13 EP
41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -1.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP