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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to BUF 39 for 3 yards (91-E.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model