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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP