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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 47

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 11-P.Washington (29-B.Codrington). Receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone, crossing from right.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP