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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 35 for 22 yards (81-J.Deguara; 57-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model