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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 11
Buffalo Bills 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(5:37) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to JAX 9 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
The Three Options
GO
+3.74 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.48 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP
KICK
+1.84 EP
- 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT
+0.12 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
