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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.50 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP