Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(1:11) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to ATL 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 26-A.Williams to ATL 30 for 11 yards (34-S.Perine; 41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.78 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model