4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP