Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

(7:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model