4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model