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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to ATL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 26-A.Williams to ATL 11 for 1 yard (21-J.Hicks). FUMBLES (21-J.Hicks), RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at ATL 8. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to ATL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 26-A.Williams to ATL 11 for 1 yard (21-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP