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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 5 at the 6
Atlanta Falcons 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 22
What Actually Happened
(4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London.
The Three Options
GO
+2.16 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.31 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK
+1.85 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
