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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.86 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model