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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to KC 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 17-M.Hardman to KC 21 for 12 yards (51-D.Malone).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model