Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 33-D.Williams. PENALTY on MIA-6-A.Walker, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.60 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model