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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model