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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP