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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to MIA 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model