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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model